Table 11 Mean ROC-AUC with 95% confidence interval (5-Fold cross-validation) at different times after diagnosis using three distinct classifiers: XGBoost (XGB), multilayer perceptron (MLP), decision trees (DT), and logistic regression (LR)
Time | Variables | Model | ROC-AUC (95% CI) |
|---|---|---|---|
90-day | Selected | XGB | 0.82 (0.78 \( - \) 0.85) |
MLP | 0.80 (0.76 \( - \) 0.85) | ||
DT | 0.77 (0.70 \( - \) 0.84) | ||
LR | 0.78 (0.72 \( - \) 0.85) | ||
All | XGB | 0.80 (0.77 \( - \) 0.84) | |
MLP | 0.75 (0.69 \( - \) 0.81) | ||
DT | 0.69 (0.65 \( - \) 0.74) | ||
LR | 0.74 (0.65 \( - \) 0.82) | ||
6-month | Selected | XGB | 0.84 (0.79 \( - \) 0.89) |
MLP | 0.81 (0.73 \( - \) 0.88) | ||
DT | 0.78 (0.72 \( - \) 0.84) | ||
LR | 0.82 (0.75 \( - \) 0.89) | ||
All | XGB | 0.84 (0.75 \( - \) 0.92) | |
MLP | 0.79 (0.75 \( - \) 0.83) | ||
DT | 0.74 (0.69 \( - \) 0.79) | ||
LR | 0.79 (0.69 \( - \) 0.89) | ||
1-year | Selected | XGB | 0.82 (0.76 \( - \) 0.87) |
MLP | 0.82 (0.75 \( - \) 0.89) | ||
DT | 0.81 (0.77 \( - \) 0.85) | ||
LR | 0.83 (0.79 \( - \) 0.87) | ||
All | XGB | 0.84 (0.82 \( - \) 0.87) | |
MLP | 0.75 (0.63 \( - \) 0.86) | ||
DT | 0.72 (0.70 \( - \) 0.75) | ||
LR | 0.77 (0.71 \( - \) 0.83) |