Fig. 2
From: Modeling-based design of adaptive control strategy for the effective preparation of ‘Disease X’
Model calibration and simulations. a Daily new infections from November 1, 2022, to the end of June 2023. The lighter shaded portion represents 95% confidence interval. b Effective reproduction number \({R}_{e}\left(t\right)\). The shaded area represents a 10% perturbation. It drops below the threshold of 1 on December 29, 2022. c The early-stage epidemic curve of the initial impact wave. Three durations are divided according to the policies enforced in China. Data points represent actual data, the curve reflects the model’s fitting results, and the shaded area represents a 10% data perturbation. d, f, h. Daily new infection curves (d), daily new severe infection curves (f), and daily new death curves (h) in 0–2, 3–59 and 60 + age groups, respectively. The lighter shaded portion represents 95% confidence interval. e, g, i. The proportions of total infections (TI), total severe infections (TSI), and total deaths (TD) to the total population in age group 0–2 (e), 3–59 (g) and 60 + (i), respectively