Table 4 Mean Absolute Error (MAE) on the test set. Results are reported as median [25th-75th] percentile. Abbreviations: FP/day, false positives per day; TG, time gain; rAR, recursive Autoregressive model; ARIMA, Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average; NN, Neural Network; LSTM, Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network; CNN-LSTM, Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory Neural Network; RF, Random Forest; LGB, LightGBM
| Â | MAE [mg/dL] | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|
Model | PH = 15 min | PH = 20 min | PH = 25 min | PH = 30 min |
rAR | 13.18 [11.46–16.10] | 18.18 [15.97–22.70] | 23.62 [20.87–28.76] | 29.77 [24.99–36.82] |
ARIMA | 11.37 [10.31–13.25] | 14.59 [13.00–17.40] | 17.54 [15.36–21.05] | 19.59 [17.29–23.49] |
NN | 10.63 [9.70–11.87] | 13.63 [12.48–15.02] | 16.09 [14.81–18.19] | 18.10 [16.36–20.74] |
LSTM | 10.22 [9.47–11.56] | 13.35 [12.35–14.59] | 15.89 [14.46–17.99] | 18.18 [16.19–20.49] |
CNN-LSTM | 10.28 [9.49–11.59] | 13.35 [12.25–14.68] | 15.75 [14.41–17.83] | 18.01 [16.07–20.59] |
RF | 10.85 [9.86–12.39] | 13.83 [12.58–16.21] | 16.81 [15.59–19.51] | 19.16 [17.44–21.87] |
LGB | 10.90 [9.97–12.46] | 14.01 [12.50–16.15] | 16.87 [15.41–19.08] | 18.88 [17.12–21.55] |