Table 3 Model performance metrics at the first and second stages of stratification for both the 30- and 90-day summative “Any event” outcome
Model performance metric | 1st stage, 2 groups, Non-Escalated vs Escalated | 2nd stage, 3 groups, Non-Escalated, GP No Concern, GP Concern | 2nd stage, 2 groups, GP Concern vs No Concern |
|---|---|---|---|
30-day Any event | |||
ROC c-statistic | 0.610 (0.598—0.632), p < 0.001 | 0.614 (0.592—0.637), p < 0.001 | 0.603 (0.565—0.642), p < 0.001 |
Sensitivity | 34.1% | 11.0% | 32.3% |
Specificity | 87.9% | 98.6% | 88.4% |
PPV | 6.7% | 16.7% | 16.8% |
NPV | 98.1% | 97.7% | 95.7% |
Accuracy | 86.6% | 96.4% | 84.5% |
90-day Any event | |||
ROC c-statistic | 0.586 (0.572—0.600), p < 0.001 | 0.588 (0.574—0.602), p < 0.001 | 0.568 (0.542—0.595), p < 0.001 |
Sensitivity | 28.6% | 7.1% | 24.7% |
Specificity | 88.5% | 98.7% | 89.0% |
PPV | 15.0% | 28.3% | 28.1% |
NPV | 94.6% | 93.7% | 87.1% |
Accuracy | 84.5% | 92.7% | 79.4% |