Table 2 Outcomes of the integrated 2 step, 3-tiered risk stratification model for predicting the 30-day and 90-day urgent care and mortality events, summated as “Any event”. Analysis is by binary logistic regression. Odds ratios (95% CI) show either unadjusted or adjusted for demographic variables * (Table 1). Post hoc 2 group comparison for GP Concern vs No concern is also given

Not escalated

27,424 (87.4)

520 (1.9)

1.0

1.0

Escalated, GP No Concern

3, 450 (10.9)

182 (5.3)

2.9 (2.4—3.4), p < 0.001

3.3 (2.7—4.1), p < 0.001

Escalated, GP Concern

518 (1.7)

87 (16.8)

10.4 (8.2—13.4), p < 0.001

12.1 (9.0 -16.4), p < 0.001

GP Concern vs No Concern

-

-

3.6 (2.8—4.8), p < 0.001

4.1 (3.0—5.4), p < 0.001

90-day Any event (%)

Unadjusted model,

X2 = 478.5, p < 0.001

Adjusted model,

X2 = 328.7, p < 0.001

Not escalated

1,472 (5.4)

1.0

1.0

Escalated, GP No Concern

446 (12.9)

2.6 (2.3—2.9), p < 0.001

3.1 (2.7—3.6), p < 0.001

Escalated GP, Concern

146 (28.2)

6.9 (5.7—8.4), p < 0.001

8.4 (6.7—10.6), p < 0.001

GP Concern vs No Concern

2.6 (2.1—3.3), p < 0.001

3.0 (2.4—3.7), p < 0.001