Enhanced forecasting of emergency department patient arrivals using feature engineering approach and machine learning

Porto, Bruno Matos; Fogliatto, Flavio Sanson

doi:10.1186/s12911-024-02788-6

BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making

Table 4 Results of average performance metrics using grid-search with fivefold cross-validation

From: Enhanced forecasting of emergency department patient arrivals using feature engineering approach and machine learning

ED ANTONIUSHOVE						ED ARMA
Methods	Resampling	MAPE	sMAPE	MASE	RMSE		Methods	Resampling	MAPE	sMAPE	MASE	RMSE
7-day test set
XGBoost	Mean	19.15	18.45	0.89	8.13		XGBoost	Mean	5.74	5.61	0.80	11.72
LightGBM		22.89	20.21	1.06	9.29		LightGBM		5.90	5.78	0.85	11.54
RF		23.76	20.42	1.11	9.68		RF		5.84	5.70	0.82	11.96
SVM-RBF		20.59	18.49	0.93	8.45		SVM-RBF		5.52	5.40	0.78	11.69
NNAR		19.45	17.87	0.90	8.10		NNAR		6.01	5.91	0.85	12.05
GLMNET		20.18	18.15	0.93	8.26		GLMNET		5.48	5.35	0.77	11.44
45-day test set
XGBoost	Mean	16.29	15.95	0.79	7.89		XGBoost	Mean	5.90	5.89	0.73	12.62
LightGBM		17.40	15.92	0.79	7.95		LightGBM		6.05	6.00	0.74	12.74
RF		21.04	18.33	0.93	9.06		RF		6.08	6.04	0.74	12.60
SVM-RBF		18.35	16.49	0.82	8.26		SVM-RBF		5.97	5.94	0.73	12.70
NNAR		17.83	16.22	0.81	8.04		NNAR		6.25	6.18	0.76	13.00
GLMNET		18.47	16.56	0.83	8.24		GLMNET		5.90	5.90	0.73	12.64
ED BRONOVO							ED DAVIS
Methods	Resampling	MAPE	sMAPE	MASE	RMSE		Methods	Resampling	MAPE	sMAPE	MASE	RMSE
7-day test set
XGBoost	Mean	14.10	13.37	0.63	8.49		XGBoost	Mean	9.90	9.90	0.90	24.14
LightGBM		15.50	14.40	0.69	8.91		LightGBM		10.91	10.75	0.96	27.05
RF		15.19	14.71	0.69	8.97		RF		10.99	11.17	0.98	27.87
SVM-RBF		14.01	13.57	0.63	8.53		SVM-RBF		10.31	10.17	0.90	25.36
NNAR		13.64	13.11	0.61	8.28		NNAR		10.12	10.09	0.90	25.31
GLMNET		14.10	13.64	0.63	8.38		GLMNET		10.46	10.30	0.91	25.79
45-day test set
XGBoost	Mean	13.22	12.74	0.76	8.54		XGBoost	Mean	10.99	11.06	0.96	26.94
LightGBM		13.25	12.76	0.76	8.57		LightGBM		10.88	10.76	0.93	26.24
RF		13.15	12.81	0.76	8.60		RF		11.10	11.25	0.98	27.81
SVM-RBF		12.75	12.68	0.75	8.56		SVM-RBF		10.51	10.37	0.91	25.77
NNAR		12.85	12.45	0.74	8.37		NNAR		10.29	10.23	0.90	25.14
GLMNET		12.61	12.58	0.75	8.56		GLMNET		10.57	10.41	0.92	26.01
ED JOON						ED KEM
Methods	Resampling	MAPE	sMAPE	MASE	RMSE		Methods	Resampling	MAPE	sMAPE	MASE	RMSE
7-day test set
XGBoost	Mean	5.03	4.96	0.93	16.50		XGBoost	Mean	21.37	19.60	0.50	7.03
LightGBM		4.73	4.66	0.88	15.96		LightGBM		23.39	20.10	0.52	7.59
RF		4.84	4.80	0.90	16.84		RF		24.41	20.70	0.52	7.62
SVM-RBF		4.61	4.52	0.85	16.22		SVM-RBF		22.87	20.32	0.52	7.27
NNAR		5.09	5.02	0.94	16.68		NNAR		21.62	18.98	0.48	7.10
GLMNET		4.91	4.76	0.88	16.85		GLMNET		23.21	20.00	0.51	7.53
45-day test set
XGBoost	Mean	5.11	5.11	0.78	17.49		XGBoost	Mean	19.41	17.68	0.51	7.15
LightGBM		5.08	5.06	0.77	17.45		LightGBM		20.77	18.65	0.54	7.37
RF		5.01	4.98	0.76	17.43		RF		20.20	18.43	0.53	7.40
SVM-RBF		4.98	4.97	0.76	17.25		SVM-RBF		19.15	18.02	0.52	7.18
NNAR		5.13	5.04	0.77	17.67		NNAR		18.92	17.42	0.50	6.92
GLMNET		5.36	5.27	0.80	18.10		GLMNET		19.47	18.21	0.53	7.37
ED PM						ED RG
Methods	Resampling	MAPE	sMAPE	MASE	RMSE		Methods	Resampling	MAPE	sMAPE	MASE	RMSE
7-day test set
XGBoost	Mean	9.72	9.54	0.71	18.61		XGBoost	Mean	7.21	7.22	0.81	12.96
LightGBM		10.50	10.17	0.76	20.01		LightGBM		6.81	6.79	0.74	12.87
RF		9.89	9.68	0.71	18.66		RF		6.55	6.51	0.71	11.93
SVM-RBF		11.22	10.44	0.77	20.77		SVM-RBF		7.37	7.35	0.81	13.67
NNAR		9.58	9.20	0.67	18.32		NNAR		7.55	7.44	0.83	13.66
GLMNET		11.94	11.01	0.81	22.01		GLMNET		7.83	7.65	0.86	14.05
45-day test set
XGBoost	Mean	8.67	8.58	0.87	18.68		XGBoost	Mean	6.23	6.16	0.69	11.42
LightGBM		8.85	8.63	0.87	18.85		LightGBM		6.31	6.17	0.69	11.54
RF		8.83	8.63	0.87	18.83		RF		6.28	6.15	0.69	11.47
SVM-RBF		9.08	8.91	0.90	19.64		SVM-RBF		6.77	6.65	0.75	12.07
NNAR		9.02	8.96	0.91	19.85		NNAR		6.77	6.64	0.75	12.15
GLMNET		9.73	9.54	0.96	21.06		GLMNET		6.72	6.63	0.75	12.03
ED RPH						ED SCG
Methods	Resampling	MAPE	sMAPE	MASE	RMSE		Methods	Resampling	MAPE	sMAPE	MASE	RMSE
7-day test set
XGBoost	Mean	5.90	5.96	0.94	14.89		XGBoost	Mean	5.08	5.08	0.85	11.93
LightGBM		6.24	6.37	0.99	15.75		LightGBM		5.35	5.33	0.94	12.17
RF		6.54	6.49	1.03	15.72		RF		5.25	5.24	0.90	11.96
SVM-RBF		6.21	6.28	0.98	15.45		SVM-RBF		5.22	5.23	0.87	12.12
NNAR		6.37	6.43	1.00	15.63		NNAR		5.21	5.19	0.90	11.73
GLMNET		6.79	6.97	1.07	16.86		GLMNET		5.85	5.72	0.99	12.75
45-day test set
XGBoost	Mean	6.04	5.96	0.84	14.57		XGBoost	Mean	5.64	5.60	0.82	12.61
LightGBM		6.06	5.98	0.84	14.67		LightGBM		5.72	5.68	0.82	12.71
RF		6.01	5.96	0.84	14.44		RF		5.69	5.60	0.81	12.56
SVM-RBF		5.71	5.74	0.81	14.37		SVM-RBF		5.69	5.60	0.81	12.56
NNAR		5.85	5.86	0.83	14.25		NNAR		6.06	5.89	0.85	13.37
GLMNET		6.63	6.85	0.98	16.61		GLMNET		6.35	6.13	0.88	13.71
ED WESTEINDE
Methods	Resampling	MAPE	sMAPE	MASE	RMSE
7-day test set
XGBoost	Mean	8.49	8.56	0.79	14.01
LightGBM		8.47	8.43	0.78	14.00
RF		8.74	8.75	0.81	14.18
SVM-RBF		8.18	8.20	0.76	13.71
NNAR		8.21	8.29	0.77	13.88
GLMNET		8.27	8.39	0.78	14.01
45-day test set
XGBoost	Mean	7.12	7.15	0.81	12.57
LightGBM		7.30	7.29	0.83	12.77
RF		7.62	7.64	0.87	13.27
SVM-RBF		7.44	7.44	0.85	12.94
NNAR		7.38	7.31	0.83	13.09
GLMNET		7.55	7.53	0.86	13.16

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