Table 3 Mean percent of outbreak signals detected by six aberration detection algorithms, tested on six outbreak sizes, at an alert rate of 0.01
From: A simulation study comparing aberration detection algorithms for syndromic surveillance
Size: | C1 | C2 | C3 | GLM | EWMA 0.4 | EWMA 0.9 | F value | p-value | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
5 cases | Mean | 10.4% | 11.9% | 9.6% | 16.0% | 10.3% | 12.0% | 9.55 | <0.0001 |
Lower CI* | 8.9% | 10.5% | 8.3% | 14.1% | 9.0% | 10.6% | |||
Upper CI | 11.8% | 13.3% | 10.9% | 18.0% | 11.7% | 13.5% | |||
10 cases | Mean | 16.4% | 18.8% | 15.4% | 30.2% | 20.2% | 22.9% | 10.01 | <0.0001 |
Lower CI | 13.7% | 16.2% | 13.0% | 25.7% | 16.7% | 19.0% | |||
Upper CI | 19.2% | 21.5% | 17.9% | 34.6% | 23.8% | 26.7% | |||
20 cases | Mean | 26.7% | 32.2% | 29.4% | 48.4% | 34.8% | 38.4% | 8.17 | <0.0001 |
Lower CI | 22.1% | 27.3% | 24.3% | 42.5% | 29.0% | 32.7% | |||
Upper CI | 31.3% | 37.2% | 34.5% | 54.3% | 40.6% | 44.2% | |||
30 cases | Mean | 38.9% | 46.2% | 42.5% | 63.0% | 47.8% | 52.5% | 7.42 | <0.0001 |
Lower CI | 33.3% | 40.0% | 36.0% | 57.2% | 41.3% | 46.1% | |||
Upper CI | 44.5% | 52.4% | 49.0% | 68.7% | 54.3% | 58.9% | |||
40 cases | Mean | 47.1% | 53.7% | 50.0% | 71.6% | 56.4% | 61.6% | 8.11 | <0.0001 |
Lower CI | 41.2% | 47.4% | 43.2% | 66.6% | 49.8% | 55.4% | |||
Upper CI | 53.0% | 59.9% | 56.9% | 76.6% | 63.0% | 67.7% | |||
50 cases | Mean | 52.9% | 58.8% | 53.8% | 77.4% | 62.7% | 67.9% | 9.83 | <0.0001 |
Lower CI | 47.0% | 52.8% | 47.0% | 72.9% | 56.5% | 62.2% | |||
Upper CI | 58.7% | 64.8% | 60.6% | 81.9% | 68.9% | 73.7% | |||
F value | 35.81 | 38.67 | 31.48 | 64.53 | 37.68 | 46.16 | |||
p-value | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | <0.0001 | |||